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Friday, February 24, 2006

Lost: Presumptions and Theories

Consider this a long reaction to Clamatius' quite insightful comment that the Others would have required either a causal role or advanced survelliance to intercept the plane crashing (in two places). That reaction being that he is right, but also being reminded that these kinds of distinctions can help corral possibilities.

For instance, let's presume:

Ethan's and Goodwin's Group caused the crash of 815
Evidence: Without having caused it, it would have been near impossible for them to reach the locations of the survivors, with alibis, at the precise time that they did. If they merely observed the crash, they would lack the level of premeditation required to be able to sneak into the crowd.
Impact: Ethan and Goodwin's Group (I'm not calling them Others to potentially distinct them from Zeke's Group) are capable of a) manipulating large objects well outside the island's boundaries.

And from there, you can build larger theories based on that presumption. Now, further evidence might prove that presumption false, but that's not so bad because it tells you important things about the presumed impacts. So if it's shown that 815 crashed on it's own, then it's possible that the group can't effect events outside the island and might effect other theories about things which happens on the mainland(s). Likewise, you can try to stack presumptions to see if they hold up. For instance, there was a theory going on that Walt's appearance was just a hologram. However, since Kate touched her black horse, it probably indicates that at least some of the "visions" are the island are more tangible than others.

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Clamatius said...

I think the only false note in the "they caused it" vs. "they foresaw it" debate is that even if you crash a plane, it'd be hard verging on impossible to get part of it to land exactly where you wanted so that one of your guys could stroll out of the woods 10 minutes later. Never mind the minor point that you'd likely kill everyone aboard.

So, you need something to explain that. I guess some kind of "tractor beam" type of remote manipulator weapon (presumably from Dharma) isn't totally out of the question given that the alternative is some kind of supernatural foretelling.

Josh said...

Well, if we presume that something "safely" crashed the plane ... and placed the crashes intentionally ... then it's at least convenient (albeit not causative) that it would be associated with the knowledge of the crash.

In other words, if we presume the "Others" can cause such a crash, it's less of a leap to presume that they could control the crash, and perhaps even the people involved.

Then, if we add other things like remote viewing, which might be a logical component to being to do this as well ... then there's a premise that the "Others" have the ability manipulate specific object in a specific range at a very long range.

Naturally, that's pretty sci fi. But not "much" of stretch for what we've been given in the show (big magnets, remote viewing). And it starts to make the odd coincidences not so odd. It's not fate, but literally a group of people controlling events in subtle ways.